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Is China likely to become a World leader by 2030?

inc4tinc4t 32 Points
Currently USA dominates World influence together witha few European nations.  China has been transforming itself and quickly becoming a serious World player.  China has a hugh population and has strong export capability.  Is it realistic that 10-13 years from now, China can overtake the United States Dominance and become a world leader?
  1. Is China likely to become a World leader by 2030?8 votes
    1. Yes
      38%
    2. No
      63%

Comments

  • No, I not think that they will be due to all of the pollution and politics that are going on over there.
  • China has evolved from being a manufacturer of cheap goods to becoming the place for World Manufacturing.  They are able to drive large change by controlling their hugh population, controlling currency, and channeling investments.  There are clear struggles they will face for future growth, but as we see technology and business leadership coming from China, they do have a real chance for world leadership position
  • Yes, between their weapons and economy they be. Although, their pollution level is horrible is really against them. They would meet to cut that out and possibly reduce their factory amount as well as emerald production which wouldn't be good for their economy.
  • Yes, they are likely to become a world leader. Although, I agree with rathernorknf_games.
  • No, I don't believe so due to the pollution and extremely high population.
  • ale5ale5 32 Points
    I think that if we are looking at 2050-70 time horizon then it maybe a possibility, but by 2030 it is highly unlikely.  China has been successful by being able to directed the masses, control their resources, but at an expense of freedom of speech and very limited middle class.  Once middle class establishes scale, they will likely not be able to continue the practices that got them this far, and therefore will limit the growth.
    China has beem successful with a culture of copying, not innovating (in many cases illegally).  That is not a foundation of World Leadership.
  • agsragsr 75 Points
    @ale5 , I agree with your position on this.i also agree on all the points about polution. The fact is China growth rate has been tremendous, and even with a slowdown of rate of growth, if continue their economy will overtake USA.  I argue though as ale5 stated, China cannot continue that rate of growth long term as at some point their middle class will need freedom of speech and leas control from the centralized government.  Once that switch happens, they will need to deal with all the same issues as the rest of current world leaders.  
  • China has come a long way, but they have a much longer way to go.  Those living on the coast are doing rather well, but the rest of the country not so much.


  • http://https//geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/china-urban-disposable-income.jpg


    China cannot sustain the growth rate they have enjoyed for the last 30 years.  As growth slows, unemployment will rise and economic inequality that is already incredibly high will spill over to become a political issue.



  • No, I don't think so. Good point CYDHarta.
  • agsragsr 75 Points
    @eugeneurltzer and @CYDdharta completely agree.  The backbone of most societies is strong middle class. That is what fuels economic growth.  Currently China's growth is fueled artifically by the centralized government.  If China were to transition to a larger and stronger middle class instead of a polairized social status of mostly super-poor and very few super rich that will change their policies drastically and will slow down the growth.
  • @agsr I'm not sure that there's anything Beijing can do.  China has the Gobi Desert to the north, the Himalayans to the west and impassable jungles to the south.  Only a fairly small portion of China's geography supports large population centers.  In a sense, China can be viewed as an island. By far most of China's population, and most of the wealth (this article contains the map I tried to link to in the previous post) are wedged into about 1/3 of China's landmass.  It's difficult for remote mountain or desert villages to be anything but poor, and so much of China falls into this category that the government can't possibly compensate for it all.   The inequality will rise, and with it will come political instability.  Far from becoming a world leader, I question whether China will survive intact until 2030.
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