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Is China likely to become a World leader by 2030?

inc4tinc4t 104 Points
Currently USA dominates World influence together witha few European nations.  China has been transforming itself and quickly becoming a serious World player.  China has a hugh population and has strong export capability.  Is it realistic that 10-13 years from now, China can overtake the United States Dominance and become a world leader?
  1. Is China likely to become a World leader by 2030?15 votes
    1. Yes
      53.33%
    2. No
      46.67%

Comments

  • No, I not think that they will be due to all of the pollution and politics that are going on over there.
  • China has evolved from being a manufacturer of cheap goods to becoming the place for World Manufacturing.  They are able to drive large change by controlling their hugh population, controlling currency, and channeling investments.  There are clear struggles they will face for future growth, but as we see technology and business leadership coming from China, they do have a real chance for world leadership position
  • Yes, between their weapons and economy they be. Although, their pollution level is horrible is really against them. They would meet to cut that out and possibly reduce their factory amount as well as emerald production which wouldn't be good for their economy.
  • Yes, they are likely to become a world leader. Although, I agree with rathernorknf_games.
  • No, I don't believe so due to the pollution and extremely high population.
  • ale5ale5 89 PointsPremium Member
    Premium Member
    I think that if we are looking at 2050-70 time horizon then it maybe a possibility, but by 2030 it is highly unlikely.  China has been successful by being able to directed the masses, control their resources, but at an expense of freedom of speech and very limited middle class.  Once middle class establishes scale, they will likely not be able to continue the practices that got them this far, and therefore will limit the growth.
    China has beem successful with a culture of copying, not innovating (in many cases illegally).  That is not a foundation of World Leadership.
  • agsragsr 343 PointsPremium Member
    Premium Member
    @ale5 , I agree with your position on this.i also agree on all the points about polution. The fact is China growth rate has been tremendous, and even with a slowdown of rate of growth, if continue their economy will overtake USA.  I argue though as ale5 stated, China cannot continue that rate of growth long term as at some point their middle class will need freedom of speech and leas control from the centralized government.  Once that switch happens, they will need to deal with all the same issues as the rest of current world leaders.  
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 176 Points

    China has come a long way, but they have a much longer way to go.  Those living on the coast are doing rather well, but the rest of the country not so much.


  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 176 Points

    http://https//geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/china-urban-disposable-income.jpg


    China cannot sustain the growth rate they have enjoyed for the last 30 years.  As growth slows, unemployment will rise and economic inequality that is already incredibly high will spill over to become a political issue.



  • No, I don't think so. Good point CYDHarta.
  • agsragsr 343 PointsPremium Member
    Premium Member
    @eugeneurltzer and @CYDdharta completely agree.  The backbone of most societies is strong middle class. That is what fuels economic growth.  Currently China's growth is fueled artifically by the centralized government.  If China were to transition to a larger and stronger middle class instead of a polairized social status of mostly super-poor and very few super rich that will change their policies drastically and will slow down the growth.
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 176 Points
    @agsr I'm not sure that there's anything Beijing can do.  China has the Gobi Desert to the north, the Himalayans to the west and impassable jungles to the south.  Only a fairly small portion of China's geography supports large population centers.  In a sense, China can be viewed as an island. By far most of China's population, and most of the wealth (this article contains the map I tried to link to in the previous post) are wedged into about 1/3 of China's landmass.  It's difficult for remote mountain or desert villages to be anything but poor, and so much of China falls into this category that the government can't possibly compensate for it all.   The inequality will rise, and with it will come political instability.  Far from becoming a world leader, I question whether China will survive intact until 2030.
  • PinoPino 67 Points
    No, China's outstanding success to date has been a consequence of adopting the west's manufacturing and marketing techniques and, as a result of cheap labour, beating us us at our own game.
    China's weaknesses are that wages are rising and have so far they have been less innovative than the west.
    Almost everything which China produces, from televisions to automobiles and from the computer to space going rockets are all inventions/discoveries of western scientists.
    The innovative nature of the west will ensure that we stay ahead of the manufacturers of cheap, and all too often shoddy western imitations. 
  • joecavalryjoecavalry 95 Points
    I believe that they will become a world leader. Many countries use them for manufacturing due to their low cost. This can increase their pollution which is a large negative, but that could also build up their financials.
  • love2debatelove2debate 109 Points
    I can see it both ways
    pro: they have lots of scale and we are seeing some innovation out of China. Their innovation is different than US, but they get really good at doing things cheaper and cheaper.
    con: if their middle class get to speak up then the artistically low wages and cost to their society (like environmental concerns) will add cost to their services and will make it less competitive.

    I lean towards saying no.
  • agsragsr 343 PointsPremium Member
    Premium Member
    Again, the high growth was at the expense of middle class and therefore is not sustainable long term.

    Also, manufacturing of the last couple of centuries relied on low cost labor.  As ratio of robots to people will exponentially increase in manufacturing process, Chinese competitive advanatage will be pressured 
  • prices rise, companies go to China for cheap manufacturing, as long as this maintains it self they could potentially become a world leader.
  • agsragsr 343 PointsPremium Member
    Premium Member
    @juristijul_24, but the big question is why China is cheaper.
    is it because of overall capability of cheap labor? The labor part will be less and less important as technology will play a bigger role.  At the same time Chinese labor will continue to get more expensive as their central government is easing costly/controversial currency manipulation 
  • @agsr China is cheaper for many reasons, they have cheap Chinese labor and many plants to manufacture goods.
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