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Since 10-15 years self driving cars will be mainstream, will luxury cars still be popular?
in Cars

By agsragsr 858 Pts
Since most of the cars will be part of ride sharing economy, what happens to luxury brands? I Argue that cheaper, commody brands will be the winners in that new economy.
islander507northsouthkoreacomey_testify
  1. Live Poll

    Since 10-15 years self driving cars will be mainstream, will luxury cars still be popular?

    11 votes
    1. Luxury brands will see dramatic decline
      54.55%
    2. Luxury brands will do mostly fine
      45.45%
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Arguments

  • While I am sure there will still be a market for luxury cars, it will be a tough sell
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    Even if self-driving cars do become mainstream in 15-20 years, most people won't want to have to ride in a car in which some unknown person was just doing God knows what.  They'll also want to have a vehicle for themselves that they know is reliable.  If people can afford to keep their vehicle private, they will.  If they can afford to have more than one vehicle and want to use one for ride-sharing, they'll keep the best vehicle for private use. 
  • @CYDdharta, possibly.  But, there will be sensors to ensure civil behavior is monitored amd vehicle is cleaned up after each use. While I agree that some people will want to have a private vehicle, it will become an order of magnitude more expensive than sharing, leading to much lower demand.  Possibly in rural and deep suburban areas, ok..but no in larger cities.  It's like saying most people stopped driving to work instead they now take mass transportation 
  • CYDdharta said:
    Even if self-driving cars do become mainstream in 15-20 years, most people won't want to have to ride in a car in which some unknown person was just doing God knows what.  
    I dont agree. Most people will be fine, just like taking a taxi or train.  If it is much cheaper to call uber and not having to worry about maintenance, worry about car washes, oay for a garage, clean snow from the car,  most will give up private cars.
    agree there will be exceptions, but maybe 1 to 50.
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @CYDdharta, possibly.  But, there will be sensors to ensure civil behavior is monitored amd vehicle is cleaned up after each use. While I agree that some people will want to have a private vehicle, it will become an order of magnitude more expensive than sharing, leading to much lower demand.  Possibly in rural and deep suburban areas, ok..but no in larger cities.  It's like saying most people stopped driving to work instead they now take mass transportation 

    @islander507 ; Sensors?  How will that work out?  No one is talking about self-cleaning cars, are you going to want to have to clean the mess someone else left in your car?  If you have a full-time job, would you even have the time?  What would be the point of owning your own car if, when you need it, it's sitting in your driveway waiting for someone to clean out the mess some stranger left in it?

    CYDdharta said:
    Even if self-driving cars do become mainstream in 15-20 years, most people won't want to have to ride in a car in which some unknown person was just doing God knows what.  
    I dont agree. Most people will be fine, just like taking a taxi or train.  If it is much cheaper to call uber and not having to worry about maintenance, worry about car washes, oay for a garage, clean snow from the car,  most will give up private cars.
    agree there will be exceptions, but maybe 1 to 50.

    @CuriousGeorge ; That's great ... for the rider, but i was talking about the vehicle owner.  Uber vehicles are private owners.  You, as a vehicle owner, will have to worry about fuel and maintenance and car washes and paying for garages.  People call a taxi when they're too drunk to drive themselves, think about what else people do when they're drunk.  Think about some of the stories about what people do in taxis; and they do that with a living, breathing driver.  Do you really want to have to clean up your car after that?
  • @CYDdharta, sensors can figure out some basic stuff and next user can always report prior user if they left a mess.  So the ecosystem should balance out.  I am not advocating for self-cleaning sensors yet.
    the premise of self driving cars is to have much higher utilization of the fleet instead of just sitting idle in people driveways.  So true, if someone is willing to pay 100x for car ownership they can still have a shiny limborgini always sitting in their expensive driveway.  They can wash it, maintain it, etc.  Or they can use Uber-Self-Drive-Luxury app, where a different luxury car can pick them up every time. The app owner can ensure some level of quality check between rides, by remotely checking video cleaniless and if needing directing to a car wash between rides. This way they can enjoy the luxury, at a reasonable cost, and it's like having use of 100 different luxury cars instead of owning them.
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @islander507 ...but who owns the car???  With Uber, the cars are owned privately.  Lets say you own a car.  Are you going to want to wash it, maintain it, etc. if you can't count on being able to use it when you need it?
  • @CYDdharta, I argue that most people will not own the cars.  There will be companies that own hugh fleets, and personal car ownership will no longer make sense. A car will always be minutes away with an app for most people (except some rural areas). 
  • Yes, for the classic.
  • agsragsr 858 Pts
    @northsouthkorea, agreed. The market for classic cars will always be there and many people will continue to enjoy driving themselves until eventually it will be either illegal or made prohibitively expensive by insurance companies.  People will always enjoy classic and luxury cars, but that luxury will be reserved only for the wealthy like collectibles.
    Live Long and Prosper
  • I don't see them going away. Even in the hypothetical scenario of the current set-up being outdated and there being a fleet of on-demand vehicles, there will be people who want to pay for luxury. I would expect there to be higher spec self-driving cars with leather seats, larger interiors, better performance, etc that people will either buy or which will cost a higher amount to rent. They might not be luxury in quite the same way as they are at the moment because with a self-driving car what's the point in getting one that can do 200 mph if the self-driving system will never exceed the speed limit, but there can still be different levels of luxury in different models of car like there are now. Maybe more popular, maybe less popular; it's hard to say and I don't really care until there's both good electric vehicles available and my country switches to mostly green energy,
    CheckerbordStrangler
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @AlwaysCorrect Will there still be speed limits for self driving cars?  What would be the point?
  • agsragsr 858 Pts
    @CYDdharta, I think speed limit would still be regulated due to 2 factors.
    1) hybrid environment with both self driving and regular cars.  Until all cars are self driving limits will be lower.
    2) at high limits there maybe safety issues even for self driving

    @AlwaysCorrect, sure some people will still want luxury cars, but the luxury option can be available for call-on-demand, so no need to own if you are looking for luxury .  Agree though that it is nice to have one available that no one else is using..kind of you don't want to rent out your living room while you are not there
    Live Long and Prosper
  • @CYDdharta

    Accidents happen and even if the computer itself is flawless and reacts instantly, the faster you're going the longer the distance it takes you to come to a dead halt. Going too fast and there might not be enough room to halt completely. It's an issue of the physics of big heavy chunks of metal moving with a lot of momentum behind them, it takes a fair amount of time to stop. Being self-driven doesn't change that part of the equation.



    See above, which comes from a UK road safety charity. Although self-driving cars can help with the thinking distance aspect of it, the braking distance will stay the same and is larger at higher speeds.
    CheckerbordStrangler
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @AlwaysCorrect There are already plans to put stopping distance in the back seat, if you'll pardon the pun.  MIT is working on designing a fleet of trucks that will draft each other (follow each other at 10 to 13 feet to maximize aerodynamic savings).  I believe that if there's a speed limit, it will be to make drafting the standard road behavior and will be based on national fuel consumption rather than on safety concerns.


  • @CYDdharta

    I'm not sure I see the connection. You can have a standardised gap between self-driving vehicles and speed-limits in self-driving vehicles. The two aren't mutually exclusive from what I can see and the article doesn't suggest otherwise.
    CheckerbordStrangler
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    edited June 2017
    @AlwaysCorrect You said speed limits would still be a safety factor for stopping distance.  Since plans are already being made for trucks to drive only 10-13 feet apart at 60 mph, obviously emergency stopping distance isn't a primary concern.  Since stopping distance isn't a primary concern, why would speed be a concern?
  • @CYDdharta

    But you yourself have just quoted form your source and defined the speed at which they would be driving, stating it directly alongside the distance. How is it not therefore a primary concern?
    comey_testify
  • @alwayscorrect , luxury cars must be popular in the future due to different types of cars being in different categories.
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @AlwaysCorrect ; In that example, neither speed nor stopping distance in a primary concern, maximizing fuel efficiency is.
  • agsragsr 858 Pts
    Okay, so a more specific point will be as follows:
    1) self driving cars will increase car utilization, so less cars will be required overall compared to today
    2) a large percentage of total cars will be part of fleets vs individual ownership
    3) arguably higher percentage of cars in a fleet will be economy vs luxury

    therefore overall demand for luxury cars should drop.

    regarding speed limits point by @CYDdharta, i also believe that self driving cars will follow each other and will optimize speed.  The issue is getting non- self driving cars on the road together with self driving ones..that still will require speed limits i think.
    Live Long and Prosper
  • @CYDdharta

    So are you talking about just in terms of the paper itself? Yes, because it didn't have to be the specific thing the paper happened to be investigating. That doesn't mean it isn't an actual concern in the scenario we are envisaging.

    To give you an example, a paper might investigate the effect of a healthy breakfast on energy levels throughout the day. That doesn't mean a healthy breakfast is the only thing - or even the primary thing - that effects your energy levels throughout the day.
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    agsr said:

    regarding speed limits point by @CYDdharta, i also believe that self driving cars will follow each other and will optimize speed.  The issue is getting non- self driving cars on the road together with self driving ones..that still will require speed limits i think.

    It would require a speed limit for non-self driving cars, but not for self driving cars.  Sensors and transmitters could be retrofitted into non-self driving cars to allow self driving cars to maneuver around them much like turn signals are required on all vehicles today. 
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @AlwaysCorrectNo, I was talking in terms of the point you brought up about stopping distances.
  • @CYDdharta

    I think this is just piling misunderstanding on top of misunderstanding.

    MIT is not "working on designing a fleet of trucks that will draft each other". Rather they have happened to do a research paper into what the benefits of a fleet of trucks drafting would be. They are working with companies in Brazil to implement this, with the idea that they could use self-driving trucks because drafting in close for long-distances strains people too much - they simply can't concentrate that long. The self-driving trucks themselves would not be of MIT design.

    The 60 mph figures comes from the article reporting on it and is just to give a reference for what the average human braking time is at that distance. it is not saying the trucks would be going that speed and no mention is made of speed limits beign a factor - it simply isn't what the research is focusing on.

    There is nothing in the paper which suggests speed limits would no longer be a concern that I can see, which is the point I was raising with stopping distances.

  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    edited June 2017
    @AlwaysCorrect Correct, but the point you brought up was about stopping distances.  Stopping distance are not a concern in the research MIT is doing.  If stopping distances are not a concern, there is no reason speed would be.
  • agsragsr 858 Pts
    @CYDdharta, technology that controls speed limit for self driving cars in a mix environment needs to evolve much more before we can have high limits for self driving cars. That said, once it's available I agree.  but I just think it will take much longer than mainstream adoption of self driving cars, and initially self driving cars need to follow the same limit.
    Live Long and Prosper
  • @CYDdharta

    Speed wasn't the purpose of the research, so that's not a reasonable conclusion to draw.

    If I do a research paper into the effects of caffeine on reaction time, that doesn't mean caffeine is the only thing that effects reaction time or even the main thing - it just happened to be the independent variable focused on in the study. A study into the economic savings of drafting will not speak to the health and safety effects of speed limits in self-driving vehicles because that's not the subject it's looking at so there is no reason it would be.
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @agsr That's an interesting view.  It seems from your answer that there will be a federal limit for self driving cars, which is at odds from the way limits are set today.  Currently, limits are set by each state.  Until fairly recently (1999), Montana had no speed limit on certain roads.  Vehicles will have factory designed limits, which will vary from one model to the next; a tow truck can't go as fast as a sports car.  Any make that will be exported to Germany will have to be able to operate at maximum speed in order to use the Autobahn.   Speed limits across the country are already on the rise,  I don't see how taking drivers out of the equation will halt that trend. 

    I think manufacturers of driverless vehicles will be cautious when programming a maximum speed.  There's a lot to work out (I hate to think of what the first few decades of recalls will be like) and manufacturers won't want to expose themselves to any more liability than absolutely necessary.
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @AlwaysCorrect You said driverless vehicles would have to maintain a safe distance between each other.  According to the chart you posted, that distance at 60mph is over 175 feet I referred to an article about research MIT is doing in which trucks going 60mph will be driving 10-13 feet from each other.  Obviously, the safe distances you mentioned are not a concern!!!  How is this difficult???  How do you not see the significance???  If the MIT research was just theoretical to see if it was possible, you might have a point, but since MIT is working with trucking companies to implement a convoy system, it looks a lot more like a prototype than just a thought exercise.
  • CYDdharta said:
    @AlwaysCorrect You said driverless vehicles would have to maintain a safe distance between each other.
    Care to quote where I said this?

    According to the chart you posted, that distance at 60mph is over 175 feet.
    No, the chart is about stopping distances. It doesn't make any claims about the minimum safe distance between vehicles and the legal law or rule of thumb in a nation is usually shorter than this distance. The actual distance people drive is even closer still.

    I referred to an article about research MIT is doing in which trucks going 60mph will be driving 10-13 feet from each other.
    Care to quote where it says this? In fact it doesn't, it only references the speed of 60 mph once to give an example of braking distances for human drivers. It makes absolutely no reference to the speed the trucks will be travelling.

    Obviously, the safe distances you mentioned are not a concern!!! 
    Not a concern in a theoretical study involving 0 actual vehicles which isn't trying to look at the myriad factors that effect driving except for efficiency is very obviously not the same as not being a concern in real life.
     If the MIT research was just theoretical to see if it was possible, you might have a point, but since MIT is working with trucking companies to implement a convoy system, it looks a lot more like a prototype than just a thought exercise.

    Yes, it may well be more than a thought exercise. That doesn't mean that speed limits aren't a factor.

    Allow me to provide you with a proposition:

    Proposition A: Speed limits matter for human drivers

    Proposition B: Human drivers very very frequently drive closer to the vehicle in front than the minimum braking distance.

    Ergo: Driving closer to the vehicle in front than the minimum braking distance does not de facto mean that speed limits do not matter and your logic does not hold if you agree with the two above propositions. You need to provide something that explains specifically why they no longer matter for self-driving cars.
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @AlwaysCorrect If you don't care about breaking distances, WHY DID YOU BRING IT UP?????????????????????
  • @CYDdharta

    I do care about breaking distances as an example of why speed limits matter. I don't particularly care about car distances - which you brought up - and I mentioned in my very first response that I didn't see much connection to what I was talking about.

    Neither the legal limit for a gap between cars in any country I am aware of nor the actual gap left by drivers in practice matches the full braking distance of cars. Therefore vehicles leaving a smaller gap than the full breaking distance is not some repudiation of the speed limits, but rather just the norm.
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 1230 Pts
    @AlwaysCorrect No one drives the speed limit either.  If you have a point to make, MAKE IT ALREADY!!!  STOP TROLLING!!!
  • @CYDdharta

    I've made my points a while back. Now I'm dealing with your responses. I don't have any more to add to the discussion at the moment besides dealing with any issues or questions you raise in regards to it.
  • MayCaesarMayCaesar 2952 Pts
    As the technology progresses and the standards of living move forward, the definition of "mainstream" and "luxury" also moves forward. The cars that were considered luxurious 40 years ago nowadays are perceived more as a rusty piece of metal that can be made to move. And yet the luxurious brands are still there, they just make much-much more comfortable cars than they did in the past. Similarly, 40 years from now what is considered luxury today will be considered a retro-style, at best, and the luxurious cars of that time will be beyond anything we can currently imagine.
    CheckerbordStrangler
  • agsr said:
    Since most of the cars will be part of ride sharing economy, what happens to luxury brands? I Argue that cheaper, commody brands will be the winners in that new economy.
    Wait a second, the thread title didn't mention ride sharing, just autonomous vehicles.
    But it's true that most ride share cars will indeed be autonomous, ten to fifteen years from now anyway.
    But I don't think that will cause privately owned cars to go away entirely, and even though many privately owned cars will ALSO be autonomous, autonomous luxury cars will be even more sought after.
    After all, if you can sit back in your luxury car and not have to drive unless you want to, isn't that a luxury in itself?

    So, what happens? As you indicated, a lot of autonomous cars will become almost like "appliances", in that they will pretty much evolve into mundane people movers with little or no human physical interaction required. 
    I can almost guarantee that the majority of these people mover type appliance cars will be pure battery electric, too.
    We're probably going to see electric cars reach parity with gasoline vehicles within ten years, no doubt about it.

    But that also creates two other classes of vehicles almost immediately, one being the luxury/sport class, which will offer autonomous driving when you want it, and manual control when you want to have fun, and the luxury factor will probably be incredible.
    The other class of cars will be the most beloved cars of the present day and classic cars of yesterday, both of which will no longer be daily drivers. These cars will live under a tarp in the garage, taken out on "date night" and on weekend pleasure cruises.
    People who take good care of their current "nice cars" will be the car aficionados of the future, and seeing those old gas guzzlers will evoke fond memories from some and derision from others. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

    In twenty years, it's a safe bet that gasoline powered cars will become something of a curiosity.
    Some people will grow up never having owned or driven a gasoline car.

    "The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."
    ---Leon Russell, "Magic Mirror"

  • CYDdharta said:
    @AlwaysCorrect Will there still be speed limits for self driving cars?  What would be the point?
    Safety. Even the very best autonomous vehicle still has limits.
    In the days when certain remote states had no speed limit on their open stretches of highway, it was still possible to get a ticket marked "speed unsafe for conditions" because the "speed limit" was established as whatever was "reasonable and prudent" under those conditions. 
    Therefore if it was reasonable and prudent to drive UP TO 120 mph in certain conditions, then 120 mph was the reasonable and prudent speed limit, subject to the officer's discretion and best judgment.

    In an autonomous vehicle, even a time tested and top level model, there will still be conditions which might limit what would be considered reasonable and prudent. 
    "The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."
    ---Leon Russell, "Magic Mirror"

  • CYDdharta said:
    @AlwaysCorrect There are already plans to put stopping distance in the back seat, if you'll pardon the pun.  MIT is working on designing a fleet of trucks that will draft each other (follow each other at 10 to 13 feet to maximize aerodynamic savings).  I believe that if there's a speed limit, it will be to make drafting the standard road behavior and will be based on national fuel consumption rather than on safety concerns.


    I am not sure that there is any "either/or" argument created by the mere fact that autonomous vehicles become able to practice aerodynamic drafting. One does not cancel out the other, because in the end, safe movements and actions are the prime objective. Autonomous vehicle logistics and operational parameters are not radically different from those of a human. It's not like we're going to introduce a radically different "species" of vehicle onto the highways. They will still have the requisite body construction, wheels and controls. The only difference will be the level of human interaction.
    "The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."
    ---Leon Russell, "Magic Mirror"

  • CYDdharta said:
    @AlwaysCorrect You said speed limits would still be a safety factor for stopping distance.  Since plans are already being made for trucks to drive only 10-13 feet apart at 60 mph, obviously emergency stopping distance isn't a primary concern.  Since stopping distance isn't a primary concern, why would speed be a concern?
    In a "road train" scenario such as the one you describe, a long "chain" of trucks all drafting ten feet apart at 60 mph, autonomous controls will share information BETWEEN vehicles, thus for example a road hazard 600 yards away will be sensed by the lead vehicle and it will instantly share that information with all the vehicles behind it. One of the main factors in autonomous vehicles is the ability to share information with all other vehicles around it.
    Thus, a road train of large trucks will be a sort of rolling "neural net" so to speak, all connected and constantly communicating with each other. Same goes for a long string of passenger cars.
    Autonomous vehicles will not be operating in a series of individual "vacuums".
    "The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."
    ---Leon Russell, "Magic Mirror"

  • @agsr for the same reason peole stalk deer with bow and arrows and black powders muskets nostalgia is a powerful thing
    The passion for destruction is also a creative passion. Mikhail Bakunin

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