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CNN Poll: Trump approval slides, matches lowest point of presidency

Opening Argument

joecavalry
  1. do you approve of President Trump?

    9 votes
    1. Yes
      44.44%
    2. No
      55.56%
It's kind of fun to do the impossible
- Walt Disney
«1



Debra AI Prediction

Predicted To Win
Predicted 2nd Place
11%
Margin

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Status: Open Debate


Arguments

  • LOL, none of the other polls show him at such a low level.  In fact, Rasmussen has Trump in positive territory at 51%.  Polls have proven to be unreliable, consistently underrating him.  If they were accurate, he wouldn't have won the election in the first place.
    PogueDrCereal
  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    @CYDdharta
    The people did not want him. He lost the popular vote to Hilary Clinton by almost 3,000,000 votes. After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.
    POLLSTERAPPROVEDISAPPROVE
    CNN40%52%
    Gallup4451
    ABC News / Washington Post4054
    Quinnipiac University3751
    NBC News / Wall Street Journal4452
    Average4152
    January polls give Trump poor marks for transition

    Now
    DATES
    POLLSTER
    GRADESAMPLE
    WEIGHT
    ADJUSTED
    FEB. 20-24
    Suffolk UniversityB+1,000RV
    1.41
    38%
    60%
    37%
    60%
    FEB. 20-23
    CNN/SSRS1,016A
    1.48
    35%
    58%
    35%
    58%
    FEB. 20-22
    Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchC+1,500LV
    0.80
    50%
    49%
    45%
    49%
    FEB. 18-22
    IpsosA-1,638A
    2.03
    40%
    54%
    40%
    53%
    FEB. 20-21
    Marist CollegeA1,026A
    1.83
    38%
    54%
    39%
    55%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
    ale5CYDdhartalove2debateWilliamSchulz
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • At first (like in early 2016) I laughed at Trump, now I actually hate him.
    PogueCYDdharta
    Be tomorrow's hero, not today's idol.
  • @Pogue Silver is biased pretty far to the left, which explains why he was so wrong all during the 2016 election.  That would be about the only explanation for why, according to him, the poll that turned out to be the most accurate, is the least accurate poll.  Let's not forget, according to Nate, Trump only had a 2% chance of winning the GOP nomination.
    love2debatePogue
  • love2debatelove2debate 175 Pts
    edited February 25
    There is a basic flaw in these polls.  We know that they are highly unreliable and used as a political tool by the media.  What story would FNN (I mean CNN) sell to its Trump-hating readers if these polls would show suport for Trump?  They were wrong a day before the election and are wrong now.
    Pogue
  • Iflove2debate said:
    YThere is a basic flaw in these polls.  We know that they are highly unreliable and used as a political tool by the media.  What story would FNN (I mean CNN) sell to its Trump-hating readers if these polls would show suport for Trump?  They were wrong a day before the election and are wrong now.
    If only there were some objective way to gauge whether trump, republicans and his policies were popular! Like, for example, checking the results of recent state, and local elections to see whether democratic candidates are massively outperforming republicans....
    Pogue
  • Gooberry said:
    If only there were some objective way to gauge whether trump, republicans and his policies were popular! Like, for example, checking the results of recent state, and local elections to see whether democratic candidates are massively outperforming republicans....
    So you think local elections are a good gauge of national sentiments? 
  • CYDdharta said:
    Gooberry said:
    If only there were some objective way to gauge whether trump, republicans and his policies were popular! Like, for example, checking the results of recent state, and local elections to see whether democratic candidates are massively outperforming republicans....
    So you think local elections are a good gauge of national sentiments? 
    I think multiple local elections across the entire country are indeed a good gauge of national sentiments. 

    Dont you?
    Pogue
  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    CYDdharta said:
    @Pogue Silver is biased pretty far to the left, which explains why he was so wrong all during the 2016 election.  That would be about the only explanation for why, according to him, the poll that turned out to be the most accurate, is the least accurate poll.  Let's not forget, according to Nate, Trump only had a 2% chance of winning the GOP nomination.
    And you give no evidence to support your claims. The majority of polls show he is unpopular! 

    CYDdharta said:
    Gooberry said:
    If only there were some objective way to gauge whether trump, republicans and his policies were popular! Like, for example, checking the results of recent state, and local elections to see whether democratic candidates are massively outperforming republicans....
    So you think local elections are a good gauge of national sentiments? 
    Um, I think that is Goober implied. 
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    There is a basic flaw in these polls.  We know that they are highly unreliable and used as a political tool by the media.  What story would FNN (I mean CNN) sell to its Trump-hating readers if these polls would show suport for Trump?  They were wrong a day before the election and are wrong now.
    What are the flaws? How do you know they are unreliable? Is it that it does not agree with your opinion? People approving does nothing to affect what Trump is doing. Why are they wrong now? Hilary did win the popular vote by nearly 3,000,000 votes (2,865,075 to be precise). CNN actually has a really high PolitiFact rating. Much higher than Fox. 

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-Hillary-Clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html
    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/cnn/
    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/fox/
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    There is a basic flaw in these polls.  We know that they are highly unreliable and used as a political tool by the media.  What story would FNN (I mean CNN) sell to its Trump-hating readers if these polls would show suport for Trump?  They were wrong a day before the election and are wrong now.
    What are the flaws? How do you know they are unreliable? Is it that it does not agree with your opinion? People approving does nothing to affect what Trump is doing. Why are they wrong now? Hilary did win the popular vote by nearly 3,000,000 votes (2,865,075 to be precise). CNN actually has a really high PolitiFact rating. Much higher than Fox. 

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-Hillary-Clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html
    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/cnn/
    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/fox/
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • Gooberry said:
    I think multiple local elections across the entire country are indeed a good gauge of national sentiments. 

    Dont you?
    The entire country?  and no, they are a gauge of sentiments on their respective locals. 
  • Pogue said:
    CYDdharta said:
    @Pogue Silver is biased pretty far to the left, which explains why he was so wrong all during the 2016 election.  That would be about the only explanation for why, according to him, the poll that turned out to be the most accurate, is the least accurate poll.  Let's not forget, according to Nate, Trump only had a 2% chance of winning the GOP nomination.
    And you give no evidence to support your claims. The majority of polls show he is unpopular!
    Almost all of the polls showed Hillary winning the 2016 election, too.  They were wrong, as was Nate Silver during the entire GOP nomination season.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/was-the-second-republican-debate-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-donald-trump/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-dont-like-donald-trump-as-much-as-they-used-to/
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/
  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    CYDdharta said:
    Pogue said:
    CYDdharta said:
    @Pogue Silver is biased pretty far to the left, which explains why he was so wrong all during the 2016 election.  That would be about the only explanation for why, according to him, the poll that turned out to be the most accurate, is the least accurate poll.  Let's not forget, according to Nate, Trump only had a 2% chance of winning the GOP nomination.
    And you give no evidence to support your claims. The majority of polls show he is unpopular!
    Almost all of the polls showed Hillary winning the 2016 election, too.  They were wrong, as was Nate Silver during the entire GOP nomination season.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/was-the-second-republican-debate-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-donald-trump/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-dont-like-donald-trump-as-much-as-they-used-to/
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/
    They showed her winning becasue she did win the popular vote. They did not know how that would work out in the electoral college. The predictions show nothing compared to the polls. 
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • Pogue said:
    CYDdharta said:
    Pogue said:
    CYDdharta said:
    @Pogue Silver is biased pretty far to the left, which explains why he was so wrong all during the 2016 election.  That would be about the only explanation for why, according to him, the poll that turned out to be the most accurate, is the least accurate poll.  Let's not forget, according to Nate, Trump only had a 2% chance of winning the GOP nomination.
    And you give no evidence to support your claims. The majority of polls show he is unpopular!
    Almost all of the polls showed Hillary winning the 2016 election, too.  They were wrong, as was Nate Silver during the entire GOP nomination season.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/was-the-second-republican-debate-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-donald-trump/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-dont-like-donald-trump-as-much-as-they-used-to/
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/
    They showed her winning becasue she did win the popular vote. They did not know how that would work out in the electoral college. The predictions show nothing compared to the polls. 
    A) they would have known she would lose the electoral college if their polls were accurate and if they had taken the time and effort to look that far into the results

    B) As I stated, and as all the links attest if you had bothered to look at them, I was talking about the GOP primaries.
  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    CYDdharta said:
    Pogue said:
    CYDdharta said:
    Pogue said:
    CYDdharta said:
    @Pogue Silver is biased pretty far to the left, which explains why he was so wrong all during the 2016 election.  That would be about the only explanation for why, according to him, the poll that turned out to be the most accurate, is the least accurate poll.  Let's not forget, according to Nate, Trump only had a 2% chance of winning the GOP nomination.
    And you give no evidence to support your claims. The majority of polls show he is unpopular!
    Almost all of the polls showed Hillary winning the 2016 election, too.  They were wrong, as was Nate Silver during the entire GOP nomination season.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/was-the-second-republican-debate-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-donald-trump/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-dont-like-donald-trump-as-much-as-they-used-to/
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/
    They showed her winning becasue she did win the popular vote. They did not know how that would work out in the electoral college. The predictions show nothing compared to the polls. 
    A) they would have known she would lose the electoral college if their polls were accurate and if they had taken the time and effort to look that far into the results

    B) As I stated, and as all the links attest if you had bothered to look at them, I was talking about the GOP primaries.
    So, how does this relate to his aproval rating being low when:
    January polls give Trump poor marks for transition

    Now
    DATES
    POLLSTER
    GRADESAMPLE
    WEIGHT
    ADJUSTED
    FEB. 20-24
    Suffolk UniversityB+1,000RV
    1.41
    38%
    60%
    37%
    60%
    FEB. 20-23
    CNN/SSRS1,016A
    1.48
    35%
    58%
    35%
    58%
    FEB. 20-22
    Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchC+1,500LV
    0.80
    50%
    49%
    45%
    49%
    FEB. 18-22
    IpsosA-1,638A
    2.03
    40%
    54%
    40%
    53%
    FEB. 20-21
    Marist CollegeA1,026A
    1.83
    38%
    54%
    39%
    55%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    You have not provided a reason on why Silver is biased and the surveys have flaws. 
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • CYDdhartaCYDdharta 544 Pts
    edited February 25
    Pogue said:
    So, how does this relate to his aproval rating being low when:
    January polls give Trump poor marks for transition

    Now

    DATES
    POLLSTER
    GRADESAMPLE
    WEIGHT



    ADJUSTED

    FEB. 20-24
    Suffolk UniversityB+1,000RV
    1.41
    38%
    60%

    37%
    60%

    FEB. 20-23
    CNN/SSRS
    1,016A
    1.48
    35%
    58%

    35%
    58%

    FEB. 20-22
    Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchC+1,500LV
    0.80
    50%
    49%

    45%
    49%

    FEB. 18-22
    IpsosA-1,638A
    2.03
    40%
    54%

    40%
    53%

    FEB. 20-21
    Marist CollegeA1,026A
    1.83
    38%
    54%

    39%
    55%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    You have not provided a reason on why Silver is biased and the surveys have flaws. 
    Silver demonstrated his anti-Trump bias and why he shouldn't be trusted in the articles and analyses he wrote leading up to the GOP primaries.  He has been demonstrably wrong time and again.
  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    CYDdharta said:
    Pogue said:
    So, how does this relate to his aproval rating being low when:
    January polls give Trump poor marks for transition

    Now

    DATES
    POLLSTER
    GRADESAMPLE
    WEIGHT



    ADJUSTED

    FEB. 20-24
    Suffolk UniversityB+1,000RV
    1.41
    38%
    60%

    37%
    60%

    FEB. 20-23
    CNN/SSRS
    1,016A
    1.48
    35%
    58%

    35%
    58%

    FEB. 20-22
    Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchC+1,500LV
    0.80
    50%
    49%

    45%
    49%

    FEB. 18-22
    IpsosA-1,638A
    2.03
    40%
    54%

    40%
    53%

    FEB. 20-21
    Marist CollegeA1,026A
    1.83
    38%
    54%

    39%
    55%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    You have not provided a reason on why Silver is biased and the surveys have flaws. 
    Silver demonstrated his anti-Trump bias and why he shouldn't be trusted in the articles and analyses he wrote leading up to the GOP primaries.  He has been demonstrably wrong time and again.
    How does that relate to the other polls?
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • Pogue said:
    How does that relate to the other polls?
    In case you weren't paying attention, the other polls weren't any better at predicting the election than his.
  • Pogue said:
    There is a basic flaw in these polls.  We know that they are highly unreliable and used as a political tool by the media.  What story would FNN (I mean CNN) sell to its Trump-hating readers if these polls would show suport for Trump?  They were wrong a day before the election and are wrong now.
    What are the flaws? How do you know they are unreliable? Is it that it does not agree with your opinion? People approving does nothing to affect what Trump is doing. Why are they wrong now? Hilary did win the popular vote by nearly 3,000,000 votes (2,865,075 to be precise). CNN actually has a really high PolitiFact rating. Much higher than Fox. 

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-Hillary-Clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html
    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/cnn/
    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/fox/
    @Pogue
    for polls to be statistically  correct it requires a random sample and has to be conducted in a way that doesn't infuence the outcome. That's very tough to do.  If CNN sanctioned the polls then no way its a random sample. They are biased.
    I am not debating fox vs cnn here, just the cnn polls.

    all polls predicted that Trump will lose the election - that's proof enough.
  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    Pogue said:
    There is a basic flaw in these polls.  We know that they are highly unreliable and used as a political tool by the media.  What story would FNN (I mean CNN) sell to its Trump-hating readers if these polls would show suport for Trump?  They were wrong a day before the election and are wrong now.
    What are the flaws? How do you know they are unreliable? Is it that it does not agree with your opinion? People approving does nothing to affect what Trump is doing. Why are they wrong now? Hilary did win the popular vote by nearly 3,000,000 votes (2,865,075 to be precise). CNN actually has a really high PolitiFact rating. Much higher than Fox. 

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-Hillary-Clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html
    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/cnn/
    http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/fox/
    @Pogue
    for polls to be statistically  correct it requires a random sample and has to be conducted in a way that doesn't infuence the outcome. That's very tough to do.  If CNN sanctioned the polls then no way its a random sample. They are biased.
    I am not debating fox vs cnn here, just the cnn polls.

    all polls predicted that Trump will lose the election - that's proof enough.
    That is because he did lose the popular vote by 3,000,000 but the way the electoral college works, made him win. You give no evidence on why they did not get "a random sample and has to be conducted in a way that doesn't [influence] the outcome."
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • 12/13 of the last presidential polls showed Hillary up by an average of 3.1 points (1 point up).

    https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

    The biggest outliers were monmouth (6% lead - 3.6% margin of error, and nbc 5% lead - 2.73% margin of error).

    So it seems nationally, the polls were actually pretty much dead on, much better than 2012 (off by about 3.2%), but worse than 2008 (which I think was about 0.4%).

    For states: 

    Arizona: polls were off by 0.5%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html

    Colorado: underestimated Clinton by 2%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html

    Florida was about 1% off (and most polls showed within the margin of error)

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html

    Georgia: 0.3% off
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5968.html

    Iowa: 4 points off, but there wasn’t much polling going on there, and there had been none for nearly a week before the election.

    Maine: 1.6. New Hampshire 0.3. 

    You ou can go through the list if you want: they got a lot of things wrong, specifically rust belt states, where they indeed got it very wrong (EVERYONE got that wrong, bra).


    The idea that the polls are all wrong is not supported by the results of 2016: this argument, which is a fallacy of false equivalence, is wholly unsupported.

    what is more, current opinion polls of trump do most assuredly tie up with current democratic wins across the country; trump is not popular.
    Pogue
  • Gooberry said:
    12/13 of the last presidential polls showed Hillary up by an average of 3.1 points (1 point up).

    https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

    The biggest outliers were monmouth (6% lead - 3.6% margin of error, and nbc 5% lead - 2.73% margin of error).

    So it seems nationally, the polls were actually pretty much dead on, much better than 2012 (off by about 3.2%), but worse than 2008 (which I think was about 0.4%).

    For states: 

    Arizona: polls were off by 0.5%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html

    Colorado: underestimated Clinton by 2%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html

    Florida was about 1% off (and most polls showed within the margin of error)

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html

    Georgia: 0.3% off
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5968.html

    Iowa: 4 points off, but there wasn’t much polling going on there, and there had been none for nearly a week before the election.

    Maine: 1.6. New Hampshire 0.3. 

    You ou can go through the list if you want: they got a lot of things wrong, specifically rust belt states, where they indeed got it very wrong (EVERYONE got that wrong, bra).


    The idea that the polls are all wrong is not supported by the results of 2016: this argument, which is a fallacy of false equivalence, is wholly unsupported.

    what is more, current opinion polls of trump do most assuredly tie up with current democratic wins across the country; trump is not popular.
    3 points is enough to swing an election.

    Getting the polls seriously wrong across a large swath of states, as you have admitted, is hardly insignificant.

    Trump's national popularity is unimportant if he can still win reelection.


  • CYDdharta said:
    Gooberry said:
    12/13 of the last presidential polls showed Hillary up by an average of 3.1 points (1 point up).

    https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

    The biggest outliers were monmouth (6% lead - 3.6% margin of error, and nbc 5% lead - 2.73% margin of error).

    So it seems nationally, the polls were actually pretty much dead on, much better than 2012 (off by about 3.2%), but worse than 2008 (which I think was about 0.4%).

    For states: 

    Arizona: polls were off by 0.5%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html

    Colorado: underestimated Clinton by 2%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html

    Florida was about 1% off (and most polls showed within the margin of error)

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html

    Georgia: 0.3% off
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5968.html

    Iowa: 4 points off, but there wasn’t much polling going on there, and there had been none for nearly a week before the election.

    Maine: 1.6. New Hampshire 0.3. 

    You ou can go through the list if you want: they got a lot of things wrong, specifically rust belt states, where they indeed got it very wrong (EVERYONE got that wrong, bra).


    The idea that the polls are all wrong is not supported by the results of 2016: this argument, which is a fallacy of false equivalence, is wholly unsupported.

    what is more, current opinion polls of trump do most assuredly tie up with current democratic wins across the country; trump is not popular.
    3 points is enough to swing an election.

    Getting the polls seriously wrong across a large swath of states, as you have admitted, is hardly insignificant.

    Trump's national popularity is unimportant if he can still win reelection.


    Excellent: your position appears to have changed from “the polls are not accurate”, to “the polls could be right, but it doesn’t matter”.

    As I pointed out, all the 12 final national polls were within (or just about at) their margin of error, meaning that despite you calling them incorrect, they were correct.

    Now, you may claim that the polls were wrong over “large swath of states”, but again, no. The polls were outside their margin error I only a few states.

    You may not like it, but the national polls have been show to be pretty accurate, and can be trusted when they indicate that Trump is one of the most unpopular presidents ever polled.


    Pogue
  • Gooberry said:

    Excellent: your position appears to have changed from “the polls are not accurate”, to “the polls could be right, but it doesn’t matter”.

    As I pointed out, all the 12 final national polls were within (or just about at) their margin of error, meaning that despite you calling them incorrect, they were correct.

    Now, you may claim that the polls were wrong over “large swath of states”, but again, no. The polls were outside their margin error I only a few states.

    You may not like it, but the national polls have been show to be pretty accurate, and can be trusted when they indicate that Trump is one of the most unpopular presidents ever polled.


    No, the polls were obviously wrong.  Most of them (6 out of the last 10) were wrong beyond their margin of error, so they were obviously wrong, even by your standards.  Then there were states, like Wisconsin, in which every single poll was wrong outside the margin of error.  And not all the current polls are saying the same thing;

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. 

    By comparison, President Obama earned 44% approval on this date in the second year of his presidency. 
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_feb26

  • I don’t belive that this poll is accurate due to many CNN, etc. polls having low accuracy and Trump doing very good, especially now.
    DebateIslander and a DebateIsland.com lover. 
  • CYDdharta said:
    Gooberry said:

    Excellent: your position appears to have changed from “the polls are not accurate”, to “the polls could be right, but it doesn’t matter”.

    As I pointed out, all the 12 final national polls were within (or just about at) their margin of error, meaning that despite you calling them incorrect, they were correct.

    Now, you may claim that the polls were wrong over “large swath of states”, but again, no. The polls were outside their margin error I only a few states.

    You may not like it, but the national polls have been show to be pretty accurate, and can be trusted when they indicate that Trump is one of the most unpopular presidents ever polled.


    No, the polls were obviously wrong.  Most of them (6 out of the last 10) were wrong beyond their margin of error, so they were obviously wrong, even by your standards.  Then there were states, like Wisconsin, in which every single poll was wrong outside the margin of error.  And not all the current polls are saying the same thing;

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. 

    By comparison, President Obama earned 44% approval on this date in the second year of his presidency. 
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_feb26

    So let me get this right; when confronted with actual evidence that 12/13 of the final national polls were correct within 0.5% (worst case) of their margin of error, and given the evidence that the majority of state polls were also correct within their margin of error, and given that national opinion polling wasn’t generally done by different people and organizations than conducted state polling your argument is that a large number of polls were outside their margin of error, and this proves every opinion poll (except the one you like), is wrong.

    In addition, you’ve picked a single outlier data point, and compared to another data point for Barack Obama, and exclude every other poll to have been conducted throughout the duration of the last 13
    months, to show that the president isn’t the most unpopular president in recent history (given polling).


    I know it’s may be emotionally easier for you to believe that if a guy you like appears unpopular, it’s because of the fake media or fake data, etc: but please don’t manufacture faulty arguments based on text book cherry picking, and literally sitting there with a straight face and attempting to argue black is white.

    By any objective measurement the data shows he’s incredibly unpopular; the producers of the data have been shown to be broadly accurate, local and state elections across the country are broadly mirroring this unpopularity by generating massive swings towards democrats, meaning that this is literally the only data or evidence based conclusion you can make.


    PogueCYDdharta
  • Gooberry said:

    So let me get this right; when confronted with actual evidence that 12/13 of the final national polls were correct within 0.5% (worst case) of their margin of error, and given the evidence that the majority of state polls were also correct within their margin of error, and given that national opinion polling wasn’t generally done by different people and organizations than conducted state polling your argument is that a large number of polls were outside their margin of error, and this proves every opinion poll (except the one you like), is wrong.

    In addition, you’ve picked a single outlier data point, and compared to another data point for Barack Obama, and exclude every other poll to have been conducted throughout the duration of the last 13
    months, to show that the president isn’t the most unpopular president in recent history (given polling).


    I know it’s may be emotionally easier for you to believe that if a guy you like appears unpopular, it’s because of the fake media or fake data, etc: but please don’t manufacture faulty arguments based on text book cherry picking, and literally sitting there with a straight face and attempting to argue black is white.

    By any objective measurement the data shows he’s incredibly unpopular; the producers of the data have been shown to be broadly accurate, local and state elections across the country are broadly mirroring this unpopularity by generating massive swings towards democrats, meaning that this is literally the only data or evidence based conclusion you can make.



    WTF are you looking at????  Do you not understand how to read polls????  If you can, that's a flat-out lie!!  Here are the final 10 (and there are only 10 polls that were used in the final totals);

    Poll                                          Date                 Sample       MoE
       Clinton (D)
             Trump (R)
                        Spread
    Bloomberg
    11/4 - 11/6
     799 LV
      3.5 
          46
                     43
    Clinton     +3
    IBD/TIPP Tracking
    11/4 - 11/7
     1107 LV
      3.1 
          43
                     42
    Clinton     +1
    Economist/YouGov
    11/4 - 11/7
     3669 LV
       --
          49
                     45
    Clinton     +4
    LA Times/USC Tracking
    11/1 - 11/7
     2935 LV
      4.5 
          44
                     47
    Trump       +3
    ABC/Wash Post Tracking
    11/3 - 11/6
     2220 LV
      2.5 
          49
                     46
    Clinton     +3
    FOX News
    11/3 - 11/6
     1295 LV
      2.5 
          48
                     44
    Clinton     +4
    Monmouth
    11/3 - 11/6
     748 LV
      3.6
          50
                     44
    Clinton     +6
    NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
    11/3 - 11/5
     1282 LV
      2.7
          48
                     43
    Clinton     +5
    CBS News
    11/2 - 11/6
     1426 LV
      3.0
          47
                     43
    Clinton     +4
    Reuters/Ipsos
    11/2 - 11/6
     2196 LV
      2.3
          44
                     39
    Clinton     +5
    https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls


    You'll notice that of the 10 polls that were used in the final totals;  6 of the 10 polls were outside of their Margin of Error (MoE), 5 of the 10 polls were more than .5 points outside of their Margin of Error (MoE), and one of the 10 polls that was rather far off refused to publish their Margin of Error (MoE).  Any poll that is wrong beyond their Margin of Error (MoE) is a failed poll.  7 of the 10 polls were utter failures.  Since almost all of the polls were failures at predicting the benchmark poll results (the 2016 election results) and only the outliers proven to be accurate, and since pollsters made excuses for their failures, much like you are doing, instead of changing their methods to make them more accurate, it makes sense to continue looking at the outliers.

    One question; are you going to continue to lie about this issue?  If that is your intention, then there is really no point in my continuing this discussion with you.
    Pogue
  • CYDdharta said:
    Gooberry said:

    So let me get this right; when confronted with actual evidence that 12/13 of the final national polls were correct within 0.5% (worst case) of their margin of error, and given the evidence that the majority of state polls were also correct within their margin of error, and given that national opinion polling wasn’t generally done by different people and organizations than conducted state polling your argument is that a large number of polls were outside their margin of error, and this proves every opinion poll (except the one you like), is wrong.

    In addition, you’ve picked a single outlier data point, and compared to another data point for Barack Obama, and exclude every other poll to have been conducted throughout the duration of the last 13
    months, to show that the president isn’t the most unpopular president in recent history (given polling).


    I know it’s may be emotionally easier for you to believe that if a guy you like appears unpopular, it’s because of the fake media or fake data, etc: but please don’t manufacture faulty arguments based on text book cherry picking, and literally sitting there with a straight face and attempting to argue black is white.

    By any objective measurement the data shows he’s incredibly unpopular; the producers of the data have been shown to be broadly accurate, local and state elections across the country are broadly mirroring this unpopularity by generating massive swings towards democrats, meaning that this is literally the only data or evidence based conclusion you can make.



    WTF are you looking at????  Do you not understand how to read polls????  If you can, that's a flat-out lie!!  Here are the final 10 (and there are only 10 polls that were used in the final totals);

    Poll                                          Date                 Sample       MoE
       Clinton (D)
             Trump (R)
                        Spread
    Bloomberg
    11/4 - 11/6
     799 LV
      3.5 
          46
                     43
    Clinton     +3
    IBD/TIPP Tracking
    11/4 - 11/7
     1107 LV
      3.1 
          43
                     42
    Clinton     +1
    Economist/YouGov
    11/4 - 11/7
     3669 LV
       --
          49
                     45
    Clinton     +4
    LA Times/USC Tracking
    11/1 - 11/7
     2935 LV
      4.5 
          44
                     47
    Trump       +3
    ABC/Wash Post Tracking
    11/3 - 11/6
     2220 LV
      2.5 
          49
                     46
    Clinton     +3
    FOX News
    11/3 - 11/6
     1295 LV
      2.5 
          48
                     44
    Clinton     +4
    Monmouth
    11/3 - 11/6
     748 LV
      3.6
          50
                     44
    Clinton     +6
    NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
    11/3 - 11/5
     1282 LV
      2.7
          48
                     43
    Clinton     +5
    CBS News
    11/2 - 11/6
     1426 LV
      3.0
          47
                     43
    Clinton     +4
    Reuters/Ipsos
    11/2 - 11/6
     2196 LV
      2.3
          44
                     39
    Clinton     +5
    https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls


    You'll notice that of the 10 polls that were used in the final totals;  6 of the 10 polls were outside of their Margin of Error (MoE), 5 of the 10 polls were more than .5 points outside of their Margin of Error (MoE), and one of the 10 polls that was rather far off refused to publish their Margin of Error (MoE).  Any poll that is wrong beyond their Margin of Error (MoE) is a failed poll.  7 of the 10 polls were utter failures.  Since almost all of the polls were failures at predicting the benchmark poll results (the 2016 election results) and only the outliers proven to be accurate, and since pollsters made excuses for their failures, much like you are doing, instead of changing their methods to make them more accurate, it makes sense to continue looking at the outliers.

    One question; are you going to continue to lie about this issue?  If that is your intention, then there is really no point in my continuing this discussion with you.
    Okay.

    lets start at the beginning. Firstly, if you think a poll that is 0.5% outside of its margin of error is “a failed poll”, then I don’t think you fully understand or appreciate what it is that the margin of error actually means. MoE is a statistcal term that tracks the deviation of the results that could be possible even if the sample is perfect. Being just outside the margin of error by 0.5% isn’t a failed poll, it actually a poll that has a quantifiable imperfect sample; effectively meaning that errors in methodology count for 0.5% of the reported deviation: that’s actually pretty good, despite your unsupported claims otherwise.

    it maybe wise to educate yourself as to how this works:

    https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/support/polling-fundamentals-total-survey-error/

    margin of of error applies to the individual results; not the margin. The results were 48 for clinton, and 46 for trump, so each survey must have results within that margin of error for each candidates results:

    From this, 7/10 of the listed ones were absolutely within the margin of error: (1,3,4,5,6,7,9)

    #2 out of the remaining over estimated trumps support compared to Hilary given the margin, (the victory margin was also within the margin of error too),

    the two remaining, one (#8) was outside its margin of error by 0.3%, which is pretty damned good and only one the last ipsos poll which underscored Hillary and trump, with the margin only 0.7% outside the margin of error (technically you should be using 2x margin of error for comparrirons of two elements).

    Even worse for you, other than not fully understanding the statistics; even if you applied the worst case errors to opinion polls, with the poll average under representing support vs opposition by 1%, Donald Trump is still clown shows by any measure.

    The bottom line here, is that you are conflating inaccuracy with incorrectness. The polls, while within the margin error appeared to give a systematic bias when averaged of about 1% to Hillary. 

    You are not arguing that the current opinion polls are 1% wrong, you are arguing that because they were 1% wrong they were 100% wrong; and thus they are 100% wrong now. 

    This is doesn’t even make any sense, and seems like a simple logically obtuse way of pretending your guy is not horribly unpopular.

    The bottom line is that I am relying on an average of multiple different polls, all of which appear to have been broadly accurate for the election, you are relying on absolutely no data whatsoever; and are simply trying to argue that the data is wrong. Unfortunately claiming the polls are inaccurate doesn’t automatically make trump popular.








    PogueCYDdharta
  • someone234someone234 523 Pts
    edited February 27
    Trump's like the fat kid on sports day.

    Noone wanted him to be president but in the end they picked what they felt was only option left because Hillary was the mean girl bully of the school.
    PogueCYDdharta
    Be tomorrow's hero, not today's idol.
  • @Gooberry

    You are still L@Gooberry

    The bold polls, 5,6,7,8,9, and 10 are ALL outside their margin of error.  Polls 6,7,8,9, and 10 are ALL MORE THAN A POINT BEYOND THEIR MARGIN OF ERROR.

    Since you continue to LIE about the polling results, which are in full view, there is no point in continuing this discussion.  I have proven the polls cannot be trusted.

    Pogue
  • CYDdharta said:
    @Gooberry

    You are still L@Gooberry

    The bold polls, 5,6,7,8,9, and 10 are ALL outside their margin of error.  Polls 6,7,8,9, and 10 are ALL MORE THAN A POINT BEYOND THEIR MARGIN OF ERROR.

    Since you continue to LIE about the polling results, which are in full view, there is no point in continuing this discussion.  I have proven the polls cannot be trusted.

    What in earth are you smoking???


    Clinton won 48/46. A margin of 2.1


    ABC Poll 5, clinton 49, trump 46. Off by 1%/0% margin off by the 1%.

    All less than 2.5% from the real values. You said it was outside margin of error: BS.


    Fox News poll 6, clinton 48 trump 44 (-2) margin off by 2%. All three numbers smaller than the 2.5% margin of error. You said that was outside of margin of error: BS.



    Are you insane, or are you literally incapable of subtracting one number from another?


    Let me explain how MoE works.


    If a poll gives clinton 44%, and trump 44% and the margin of error is 4%, this number means clinton could be as high as 48 and as low as 40%. The same for trump. This is spelt out in the link.


    I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion you don’t understand how the statistics work, and have no idea how to recognize when a poll is or is not within its margin of error.

    you also literally ignored every other part of my post.

    Pogue
  • @Gooberry ; Clinton LOST the election.  Polls 5,6,7,8, 9,and 10 were wrong well outside of their margins of error.
    Pogue
  • CYDdharta said:
    @Gooberry ; Clinton LOST the election.  Polls 5,6,7,8, 9,and 10 were wrong well outside of their margins of error.
    Yes: we established that you can angrily assert that the poll were outside of their margin or error. Now let’s look at the way polls, statistic, etc work if you’re not inclined to spend your day snorting depleted uranium:

    Trump won 46% of the vote.
    Clinton won 48% of the vote.

    Any poll that gave clinton and trump a %age that is less than the poll margin of error away from those values is “within the margin of error”.

    abc poll 5 was off by 1/0%, Fox News poll 6 was off by 0/2%, all those numbers are within the 2.5% margin of error.

    Despite your vehement assertions to the contrary, 0%, 1% and 2% are all numbers that are smaller than 2.5%.

    I don’t know you don’t seem to be able to comprehend basic number comparison, but no amount of assertions that a poll that gets both candidates percentages within 2% is “way outside the margin of error”, of 2.5% makes it true.

    Please enlighten me, how on earth do you work out that a poll with a margin of error of 2.5% and both candidates totals within 2% is “ way outside the margin of error.”


  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    edited February 27
    @CYDdharta ;CYDdharta said:
    @Gooberry ; Clinton LOST the election.  Polls 5,6,7,8, 9,and 10 were wrong well outside of their margins of error.

    Outright false statement. Using your chart. 
    Poll                                          Date                 Sample       MoE
       Clinton (D)
             Trump (R)
                        Spread
    Bloomberg
    11/4 - 11/6
     799 LV
      3.5 
          46
                     43
    Clinton     +3
    IBD/TIPP Tracking
    11/4 - 11/7
     1107 LV
      3.1 
          43
                     42
    Clinton     +1
    Economist/YouGov
    11/4 - 11/7
     3669 LV
       --
          49
                     45
    Clinton     +4
    LA Times/USC Tracking
    11/1 - 11/7
     2935 LV
      4.5 
          44
                     47
    Trump       +3
    ABC/Wash Post Tracking
    11/3 - 11/6
     2220 LV
      2.5 
          49
                     46
    Clinton     +3
    FOX News
    11/3 - 11/6
     1295 LV
      2.5 
          48
                     44
    Clinton     +4
    Monmouth
    11/3 - 11/6
     748 LV
      3.6
          50
                     44
    Clinton     +6
    NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
    11/3 - 11/5
     1282 LV
      2.7
          48
                     43
    Clinton     +5
    CBS News
    11/2 - 11/6
     1426 LV
      3.0
          47
                     43
    Clinton     +4
    Reuters/Ipsos
    11/2 - 11/6
     2196 LV
      2.3
          44
                     39
    Clinton     +5
    https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

    The only one that was outside of the margin of error by a lot was the outlier. It was Reuters. CBS had it 3 away from Trump and 1 from Clinton. Right inside the margin of error of 3. NBC was away 0 from Clinton and 3 from Trump. 0.3 away from margin of error from Trump and inside of it from Clinton. Monmouth, had it at 2 from Clinton and 2 from Trump. This is well inside the margin of error. I am surpised you listed Fox News as outside the margin of error. However, it is not. 
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • Gooberry said:
    CYDdharta said:
    @Gooberry ; Clinton LOST the election.  Polls 5,6,7,8, 9,and 10 were wrong well outside of their margins of error.
    Yes: we established that you can angrily assert that the poll were outside of their margin or error. Now let’s look at the way polls, statistic, etc work if you’re not inclined to spend your day snorting depleted uranium:

    Trump won 46% of the vote.
    Clinton won 48% of the vote.

    Any poll that gave clinton and trump a %age that is less than the poll margin of error away from those values is “within the margin of error”.

    abc poll 5 was off by 1/0%, Fox News poll 6 was off by 0/2%, all those numbers are within the 2.5% margin of error.

    Despite your vehement assertions to the contrary, 0%, 1% and 2% are all numbers that are smaller than 2.5%.

    I don’t know you don’t seem to be able to comprehend basic number comparison, but no amount of assertions that a poll that gets both candidates percentages within 2% is “way outside the margin of error”, of 2.5% makes it true.

    Please enlighten me, how on earth do you work out that a poll with a margin of error of 2.5% and both candidates totals within 2% is “ way outside the margin of error.”


    And yet, Trump WON THE ELECTION; so what you're saying is that most of the polls were wrong because they were fundamentally flawed due to measurement errors.  Since they would much rather make excuses for their errors like you do, rather than alter their polling methods, there is no reason trust their findings.
    Pogue
  • PoguePogue 498 Pts
    CYDdharta said:
    Gooberry said:
    CYDdharta said:
    @Gooberry ; Clinton LOST the election.  Polls 5,6,7,8, 9,and 10 were wrong well outside of their margins of error.
    Yes: we established that you can angrily assert that the poll were outside of their margin or error. Now let’s look at the way polls, statistic, etc work if you’re not inclined to spend your day snorting depleted uranium:

    Trump won 46% of the vote.
    Clinton won 48% of the vote.

    Any poll that gave clinton and trump a %age that is less than the poll margin of error away from those values is “within the margin of error”.

    abc poll 5 was off by 1/0%, Fox News poll 6 was off by 0/2%, all those numbers are within the 2.5% margin of error.

    Despite your vehement assertions to the contrary, 0%, 1% and 2% are all numbers that are smaller than 2.5%.

    I don’t know you don’t seem to be able to comprehend basic number comparison, but no amount of assertions that a poll that gets both candidates percentages within 2% is “way outside the margin of error”, of 2.5% makes it true.

    Please enlighten me, how on earth do you work out that a poll with a margin of error of 2.5% and both candidates totals within 2% is “ way outside the margin of error.”


    And yet, Trump WON THE ELECTION; so what you're saying is that most of the polls were wrong because they were fundamentally flawed due to measurement errors.  Since they would much rather make excuses for their errors like you do, rather than alter their polling methods, there is no reason trust their findings.
    Straw man. He won the electoral college, not the popular vote. Goober never made an excuse for them. They were actually not far from the margin of error. Why alter the methods? They seem pretty accurate from what you provided. 
    I could either have the future pass me or l could create it. 

    “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin  So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.

    I friended myself! 
  • CYDdharta said:
    Gooberry said:
    CYDdharta said:
    @Gooberry ; Clinton LOST the election.  Polls 5,6,7,8, 9,and 10 were wrong well outside of their margins of error.
    Yes: we established that you can angrily assert that the poll were outside of their margin or error. Now let’s look at the way polls, statistic, etc work if you’re not inclined to spend your day snorting depleted uranium:

    Trump won 46% of the vote.
    Clinton won 48% of the vote.

    Any poll that gave clinton and trump a %age that is less than the poll margin of error away from those values is “within the margin of error”.

    abc poll 5 was off by 1/0%, Fox News poll 6 was off by 0/2%, all those numbers are within the 2.5% margin of error.

    Despite your vehement assertions to the contrary, 0%, 1% and 2% are all numbers that are smaller than 2.5%.

    I don’t know you don’t seem to be able to comprehend basic number comparison, but no amount of assertions that a poll that gets both candidates percentages within 2% is “way outside the margin of error”, of 2.5% makes it true.

    Please enlighten me, how on earth do you work out that a poll with a margin of error of 2.5% and both candidates totals within 2% is “ way outside the margin of error.”


    And yet, Trump WON THE ELECTION; so what you're saying is that most of the polls were wrong because they were fundamentally flawed due to measurement errors.  Since they would much rather make excuses for their errors like you do, rather than alter their polling methods, there is no reason trust their findings.

    When a poll says clinton will win the popular vote 49 - 46%, and she wins the popular vote by 48-46% that poll is really ****ing accurate.

    I’m sorry you live in an alternate reality where a poll that predicts the actual result within two percentage points is somehow “wrong”, and “fundamentally flawed”.

    You are literally arguing black is white here, but I’m glad you’ve suddenly dropped the “they are all outside the margin of error” argument, I’m figuring this is because you realize you completely fudges the map.
  • Gooberry said:

    When a poll says clinton will win the popular vote 49 - 46%, and she wins the popular vote by 48-46% that poll is really ****ing accurate.

    I’m sorry you live in an alternate reality where a poll that predicts the actual result within two percentage points is somehow “wrong”, and “fundamentally flawed”.

    You are literally arguing black is white here, but I’m glad you’ve suddenly dropped the “they are all outside the margin of error” argument, I’m figuring this is because you realize you completely fudges the map.
    The polls didn't say who would win the popular vote.  No one cares who wins the popular vote.  The only thing that matters is who will win the election, which is why people refer to the polls.  Almost all of the polls got the election wrong.  They were definitely flawed. 
  • CYDdharta said:
    Gooberry said:

    When a poll says clinton will win the popular vote 49 - 46%, and she wins the popular vote by 48-46% that poll is really ****ing accurate.

    I’m sorry you live in an alternate reality where a poll that predicts the actual result within two percentage points is somehow “wrong”, and “fundamentally flawed”.

    You are literally arguing black is white here, but I’m glad you’ve suddenly dropped the “they are all outside the margin of error” argument, I’m figuring this is because you realize you completely fudges the map.
    The polls didn't say who would win the popular vote.  No one cares who wins the popular vote.  The only thing that matters is who will win the election, which is why people refer to the polls.  Almost all of the polls got the election wrong.  They were definitely flawed. 
    A national poll of voters produces an estimate of how the country as a whole will vote. It is BY DEFINITION trying to measure the popular vote.

    could you please stop disagreeing with objective reality? Is getting obtuse now.

    Also, please stop shouting at me about how all the polls are all wrong when clearly you do not know what you’re talking about: I’ve shown the final national polls were pretty accurate.

    So aside from your own personal assertions, you have no arguments and seem simply to be gunning for the prize of how many times an individual can be wrong in a single thread.
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