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Border Patrol arrests drop sharply in June

Debate Information

Is illegal immigration being reduced to Trump’s zero tolerance immigration policy?

Article -
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/border-patrol-arrests-drop-sharply-in-june/
yolostide
  1. Live Poll

    ?

    3 votes
    1. Yes
        0.00%
    2. No
      100.00%
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  • yolostideyolostide 95 Pts   -   edited July 2018
    I believe that this is due to Trump’s vey stric immigration policy and the serration of parents and children at the border which could make some illegal immigrants think twice before crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally.
  • MayCaesarMayCaesar 5967 Pts   -  
    What is more likely is that, facing the increased security at the border, the immigrants prepare to the trip much better, study the maps and find shortcuts, letting them avoid the patrols and cross safely - leading to the decrease of the arrests.

    It is far to verify, however, without also obtaining the statistic on how many immigrants actually arrive through the border.
  • blamonkeyblamonkey 66 Pts   -  

    Before even glancing at the numbers behind immigration, one needs to define exactly what policies that Trump has implemented to cut illegal immigration. Kimberly Amadeo of The Balance offers a list of executive orders under Trump that have targeted immigration in any form. First on the list is the Trump administration’s attempt to eliminate DACA and replace it with political concessions. If no deal was made in Congress, such as border wall funding or elimination of the Visa waiver program, then DACA was schedule to end on March 5th, 2018. Instead, the Federal District Court for DC determined that the DHS should explain its reasons to end the DACA program, or the DHS must continue processing DACA applicants in 90 days. The next policy is the most recent Travel Ban which targeted 6 countries that was recently affirmed by the SCOTUS. It shuts down immigration with eight countries for 90 days, (it should be noted that my information regarding recent aspects of the ban came from BBC since The Balance was slightly out of date) (4,5). Another policy cut the number of refugees from 11 countries and reduced much of the staff that conducted clearance interviews overseas. The Wall plan has yet to be implemented, so it has no effect on immigration. Finally, the last major policy listed on The Balance directed the DHS to review companies H1-B visas to weed out abuse (4). As evident, many of Trump’s policies regarding immigration do nothing to massively decrease illegal immigration.

    The only two that immediately come to mind that would substantially decrease illegal immigration would be his support of increasing border patrol agents, and the family separation. The Government Executive reported on Congress which rejected the proposed enforcement spike (6). Ergo, it is likely that the proposed increase did little to deter illegal immigration especially when coupled with high turnover, lack of people willing to work these jobs, and current increases in illegal immigration through other avenues.

    The only policy then that comes to mind regarding illegal immigration is then the one separating families. Other executive orders under the administration are either only tangentially related to immigration, not completed yet, or not nearly as impactful as this one plan put forward.

    So, where does that land us? Well, CNN data show that in the immediate aftermath of the zero-tolerance policy, illicit border crossings jumped by 5%. (7).

    Let me be clear. While Trump executive policies could deter some from venturing onto US soil, the main folly with the argument is proving causation versus correlation. Even in the absence of concrete evidence, we can expect a moderate to minute impact on illegal border crossings with current information. The Annenberg Public Policy Center, which runs Factcheck.org, compiled statistics on border apprehensions directly from the CBP and found that since early 2000, border apprehensions have been on a steep decline (1). In fact, border crossings are far from an immense portion of illegal immigrants currently. CBS reports on a growing trend of increased visa overstays representing the sweeping portion of illegal entries onto US soil (2). This is not to say that Trump policies have not curbed immigration whatsoever. However, despite the threat of immigration enforcement at the border, people that desperately need to escape threats within their own country are unlikely to give up just because of criminal prosecution for crossing or the threat of deportation. Instead, as mentioned by @MayCaesar, many will simply circumvent the current enforcement we have. The San Diego Tribune demonstrates this with the surge of Border Patrol agents during the Bush era. Despite an increase within the agency, the trends shown by Factcheck.org conclude that immigration did not necessarily decrease in years where the manpower on the border increased rapidly (3,1). If people are desperate for financial stability that is unavailable in Mexico, Guatemala, or any other country where opportunity is scant, then people are still going to take risks to ensure their success in the future.


    1. https://www.factcheck.org/2018/04/the-stats-on-border-apprehensions/

    2. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/visa-overstays-outnumber-illegal-border-crossings-trend-expected-continue-n730216

    3. http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/immigration/sd-me-border-enforcement-20170302-story.html

    4. https://www.thebalance.com/donald-trump-immigration-impact-on-economy-4151107

    5. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39044403

    6. https://www.govexec.com/management/2018/03/congress-rejects-trumps-bid-more-immigration-enforcement-and-border-patrol-agents/146978/

    7. http://time.com/5314769/family-separation-policy-donald-trump/

     


    Polaris95
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