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Quantitative Investing: A Crisis Waiting to Happen?
in Investments

By inc4tinc4t 184 Pts edited May 2017
WSJ published an article about future of stock investments driven by robots.

https://apple.news/AI1Hz56-VQ0eBSBvsANkAug
therepjoecavalry
  1. Live Poll

    Quantitative Investing: A Crisis Waiting to Happen?

    10 votes
    1. Yes
      80.00%
    2. No
      20.00%



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Arguments

  • I don't think it would break out into a crisis, at least not any time soon. It doesn't seem like that much of a threat. You need humans to do a lot of stuff even in top of this.
  • agsragsr 851 Pts
    @drelamela, the issue is that lots of algorithmic trading is happening automatically by an algorithm that most humans who created it barely understand. We already have multiple cases where we had major issues, so I think it may have furter fallouts.
    internrubu
    Live Long and Prosper
  • I ageee with @agsr .
  • At the rate of technological advancement I will be highly surprised if machines will not ourperform humans in trading in the next 10 years.  In many cases they already do.  Since we are talking about trillions of dollars trading in a black box that humans can't understand then I agree with the article that the prospects are scary.
    therep
  • thereptherep 61 Pts
    Machines could completely out perform humans. That is a potentially job killer that Trumo may want to consider and possibly fix.
  • agsragsr 851 Pts
    @therep, I agree that robotics automation may cause issues with employment.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pwc-robotics-jobs-20170324-story.htm

    Robots could take over 38% of U.S. jobs within about 15 years, report says


    joecavalry
    Live Long and Prosper
  • Artificial intelligence could eventually take out many jobs human shave today or would have in the future if AI wouldn't be there. Also, humans may eventually become less reliant on their Brains which could cause a level of stupidity throughout the humans.
    ale5
    DebateIslander and a DebateIsland.com lover. 
  • ale5ale5 245 Pts
    @joecavalry, agree. What we know know as people vs machines will also change.  Cognitive computing will augment many human activities.  The jobs and activities will evolve, as humans will have to partner with robots in different ways.
    your point is also great about humans may become stupid in some ways, but I think in other ways they will become really smart - learning how to leverage robots better.
    agsr
    It's kind of fun to do the impossible
    - Walt Disney
  • Complex computer-based algorithms are already routinely employed in stock investment plans, and nevertheless they do not make the human involvement obsolete? Why?

    Well, a computer is just a computer. It gets an input, which is typically merely a plot of the stock value versus time, and tried to predict the optimal moment to invest and the optimal amount of investment. It perfects the probabilistic part of the stock value nature.

    However, a computer, at least, at this stage of technological development cannot account for the factors happening in the world that can affect the stock value, but that cannot be easily put into numbers. For example, suppose you are investing in a Japanese fishing company. You learn from the news that, due to a very cold season, the fishing product is very scarce this year, hence the fish sales are going to be low and fishing companies are going to have their stocks severely depreciated. A smart investor will quickly pull their money out of the stock and invest in something else. But a computer might not see the upcoming catastrophe, thinking, "The current plots do not show anything unusual, so no need to worry!"

    When we get to the point where AIs outsmart humans in a general economical analysis, then, of course, human participation in stock investment will become obsolete. However, at that point human involvement in almost anything will become obsolete, and stocks are in no way unique in this regard.
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